The Eagles out-gained the Huskies 335-280 yet managed more turnovers (4) than points (3). Reason to believe the Huskies could underperform market expectations vs Mass: In addition to a likely emotional letdown, Connecticut's 13-3 upset of Boston College included some luck.

There are other similar examples this week: Massachusetts (+15.5) Connecticut And one slightly outside of the aforementioned bracket of P5 teams, Marshall lost straight up to Bowling Green a week after surprising Notre Dame. Middle Tennessee got blown out by UTSA after beating Miami. Appalachian State needed a last-second touchdown to get through Troy as two-TD favorites a week after beating Texas A&M. Tulane’s Week 3 win over Kansas State was followed up by a loss to Southern Miss as two-TD favorites. Identifying buy-low (betting market moving too much on a team coming off a big loss or bad performance) and sell-high (market overvaluing a performance) spots is one of the best ways to find value in a line early in the week, and teams coming off an unexpected, potentially program-defining win over a Power 5 school is one of those spots.

Consistently beat the line, and the results will follow. Our goal here is obtaining closing line value by finding betting lines early in the week that are likely to move. Still, there are spots where we can find inefficiencies in the opening lines and capitalize on information that the market either might have missed or isn't yet aware of. Week 10 might not be the perfect time to debut our article that aims to identify underrated teams, as the market has a lot of information available in rating them that it did not necessarily have a few weeks earlier.

Massachusetts isn't a good team, but the Minutemen are getting more than a two-TD head start against UConn team coming off emotional - and lucky - upset of Boston College.

After hanging around in Ann Arbor, Michigan State is getting 16.5 against an Illinois defense yet to face an offense of the Spartans' pedigree.

Three is a key number in both the NFL and NCAA, and we are getting Baylor at +3.5 right now.

Baylor moneyline